Gimme An "O" PART1
Where will the Panthers go to get offense?
Where will the Panthers go to get offense?

Posted Nov 6, 2002


Jeff Cudd breaks down the QB's and WR's in the draft over the years, and looks to see where the Panthers need to go to get some offense.

Charlotte, NC- Hold on to your hats, because I'm about to drop a bombshell.

The Panthers need some offense.

Yep, you heard it here first - We need a playmaker or 7 on the offensive side of the ball.  Rarely can a team be completely fixed overnight, so we should applaud Fox and company for fixing what they could this year.  Unfortunately, that left us with a dominating defense (for 55 minutes, anyway) and an under whelming offense.

Considering we plan on building through the draft, it's only logical Fox and Marty Hurney look to the collegiate ranks for playmakers.  Among the fans, it's clear the debate is down to drafting a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round.  Either would be a fine choice.

The question is, how do we decide?  It occurred to me that we could look at where other QBs and WRs were taken.  Now, some old coach (I can't remember who) once said there were lies, damn lies, and statistics.  Statistics can be twisted to fit any result you want, so I tried to be as straightforward as I could here.  Hopefully I avoided any bias.

First, I took a look at the quarterbacks who had started a game this season as of October 28th.  I may have missed a few, but I came up with 50 - more than I expected, but it gave a good cross sample.  I looked at the rounds these QBs were drafted in or if they were undrafted/original free agents.  Then I broke down the average round drafted for the total group, and what percentages were drafted in each round.  Finally, I found out whether the quarterback was still with the team that brought him into the NFL.  Got that?  Let's take a look:

Quarterbacks

50 quarterbacks = 42 drafted, 8 original/undrafted free agents.

24 (48%) quarterbacks are still with the team that brought them in, 26 (52%) have moved on to another team.

When were they drafted?

 

 

 

Round

Number of QBs drafted

Percentage

1

16

32%

2

5

10%

3

3

6%

4

6

12%

5

3

6%

6

6

12%

7

1

2%

8

1

2%

9

1

2%

Undrafted

8

16%

Average round drafted: 3.2

So what in the world does this tell us?  Slightly more than half the quarterbacks starting a game this year are not with their original team.  The vast majority of QBs in the NFL are drafted rather than undrafted.  While the average round to draft a QB based on our sample is the third round, the largest percentage of QBs drafted were taken in the first round - Somebody must feel the need to take that risk.

Just to be fair, we have to admit the round drafted doesn't equal success, we're just crunching numbers here.  To evaluate the quality of those 1st round QBs, we can take a look at them:

First Round Quarterbacks

Player

Current team

Drafted by

 

 

 

Kerry Collins

Giants

Panthers

Donovan McNabb

Eagles

Eagles

Patrick Ramsey

Redskins

Redskins

Joey Harrington

Lions

Lions

Daunte Culpepper

Vikings

Vikings

Mike Vick

Falcons

Falcons

Trent Dilfer

Seahawks

Buccaneers

Drew Bledsoe

Bills

Patriots

Vinny Testaverde

Jets

Buccaneers

Chad Pennington

Jets

Jets

Akili Smith

Bengals

Bengals

Tim Couch

Browns

Browns

Tommy Maddox

Steelers

Broncos

David Carr

Texans

Texans

Peyton Manning

Colts

Colts

Steve McNair

Titans

Oilers/Titans

So out of those 16 QBs taken in the first round, 5 are not with their original teams.  That's 68.75% on the original team and 31.25% moving on.  It is up to all of us to decide which players are successful and which are failures.  I can say without hesitation that Manning, McNair, Bledsoe, Vick, Culpepper, McNabb, and Collins are all moderately to extremely good quality.  That's 7 out of 16, slightly less than half.  I would say that Dilfer and Testaverde, while having some success, have not lives up to their potential, but were worth a first round pick - Even if it wasn't for the team that drafted them.  That's 2 out of 16.  I would say it's too soon to tell for Carr, Couch, Pennington, Harrington, and Ramsey.  That's 5 of 16, slightly less than a third.  That leaves Maddox (despite his recent wins) and Smith as busts so far, rounding out the last 2 of 16.



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